Anhui Heli (600761): Steady growth in line with expectations

Anhui Heli (600761): Steady growth in line with expectations

Investment Highlights Performance Summary: The company released the third quarter report for 2019 and achieved revenue of 74 in the first three quarters.

8 yuan (+0.

3%), net profit attributable to mother 4.

80,000 yuan (+4.

2%), deducting non-net profit 4.

100 million (+4.

8%).

In Q3 2019, it achieved revenue of 24 in a single quarter.

700 million (+3.

9%), net profit attributable to mother 1.

300 million (+18.

7%), deducting non-net profit 1.

10,000 yuan (+30.

2%).

  Outstanding industry, in line with expectations.

In the first eight months of 2019, the sales volume of the forklift industry was 40.

10,000 units (-2%), which was under further pressure in the first half of the year. The company achieved positive revenue growth in the first three quarters, which performed better than the overall industry situation.

In July 2019, the growth rate of industry sales in August was -5.

3%, -8.

7%, the company’s single Q3 revenue growth rate reached 3.

At 9%, profits have grown again.

In the third quarter of 2018, the company’s revenue and profit base were relatively high, accounting for 24.

2% and 17.

8% in the past 10 years, this proportion is only higher than in 2015, the company’s Q3 single-quarter results achieved higher growth, due to the company’s increased share and base effect.

  The company achieved a gross profit margin of 21 in the first three quarters of 2019.

4% (+2.

1pp), to achieve an expense ratio of 12.

8% (+2.

2pp), of which, expenses for sales expenses4.

7% (+0.

2pp), 北京桑拿体验网 administrative expenses8.

3% (+1.

9pp), financial expenses expense-0.

2% (+0.

1pp).

  Industry demand has declined, leading market share has increased.

According to the statistics of the Industrial Vehicle Branch of the China Construction Machinery Association, the total sales volume (including exports) of the entire industry in the first eight months of 2019 was about 40.

10,000 units (-2%), of which Q1 sales were 15.30,000 units (+11.

3%), Q2 sales of 15.

40,000 units (-9.

7%). In July and August 2019, the industry sales growth rate was -5.

3%, -8.

7%, indicating a severely sluggish industry demand.

Total domestic market sales in the first half of 201923.

50,000 units, an increase of 3 per year.

1%, affected by trade friction, the total export sales volume was 7.

20,000 units, down 10 previously.

1%.

The company’s domestic market sales in 2019H1 increase by 5 per year.

9%, the export volume increases by 23 every year.

4%, achieving a domestic market share of 27 brands.

2%, continue to maintain the number one in the country.

  Earnings forecasts and investment advice.

The company is a leading enterprise in the domestic forklift industry, and the strong one is Hengqiang.

Expected company 2019?
In 2021, the EPS will be 0.

81/0.

87/0.

95 yuan, corresponding to PE is 11/10/10 times, maintaining the “overweight” level.

Risk warning: downstream demand is lower than expected risk; profitability is lower than expected risk; exchange rate change risk.