China Jushi (600176) 2019 Third Quarterly Report Review: Performance Meets Expectations Waiting for Industry Reversal
Event: The company announced three quarterly reports on the evening of the 22nd, and realized revenue of 77 in the first three quarters of 19 years.
3.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of +1.
43%, achieving net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies15.
4.9 billion, YoY-19.
02%, net profit YoY-24 after deduction.
Among them, Q3 achieved revenue of 26 in a single quarter.
7.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.
47%, net profit attributable to mothers4.
9.5 billion, YoY-23.
Both revenue and performance were in line with expectations.
The sales volume increased steadily, and the structure was improved to enhance anti-interference.
The company’s production capacity is gradually released, and sales volume rises and rises quarter by quarter. In Q1 to Q3 2019, the sales volume was 39 in each quarter.
6/44 budget, cumulative sales in the first three quarters of about 126 tons, we expect YoY + 5% or so.
Benefiting from the increase in demand for wind power, we expect the sales of high-end products to grow faster than the overall growth.
We expect that the company’s high-end products (electronic yarn / wind yarn / thermoplastic) account for more than 60%, and the product structure will continue to improve, which will improve profitability.
In the first three quarters, the revenue per ton was 6,141天津夜网 yuan / ton, which was 250 yuan / ton lower than that in the same period of 2018, while the prices of alkali-free glass fiber and winding direct yarn decreased by 377/558 yuan, due to the company’s high-end product revenueIncrease, the income side is less affected by lower prices.
The cost is slightly under pressure, and the profit center is rising.
The company’s single ton cost in the first three quarters was 3690 yuan / ton, which was an increase of 182 yuan / ton compared to 2018. We believe that this was mainly due to the increase in raw material / natural gas / labor costs.
However, the company will continue to improve the technology and management innovation to achieve a centrally lowered manufacturing cost and a profitable center.
The company’s single-ton profit in the third quarter was 1,133 yuan / ton, 南京桑拿网 which has clearly increased compared with the bottom of the previous cycle (September 17).
The fourth quarter may stabilize, waiting for the cycle to reverse.
We judge that the price of low-end glass fiber may decrease slightly, but the space is not large.
Due to the poor profitability of the industry and the supply-side commissioning income, we estimate an increase of 26 in 20 years.
6 The highest production capacity, the demand side will increase the production capacity by about 40-50 tons. It is expected that the supply and demand will reach another balance in the second half of next year, and the industry is expected to usher in a transformation.
Investment suggestion: Increase the profit forecast, and estimate EPS 0 in 19/20/21.
92 yuan, CAGR + 10.
The current maximum corresponds to 19 years of PE14.
9 times. As the stability of profitability has increased and the industry supply and demand have reached a balance in 20 years, the price of glass fiber has helped to bottom out. It is expected to usher in a double increase in expectations and profitability.
Risk reminders: 1) The price of glass fiber fell more than expected; 2) The supply exceeded expectations.