China National Heavy Duty Truck (000951): Light-loaded to usher in a welcome start to raise the level to recommended

China National Heavy Duty Truck (000951): Light-loaded to usher in a welcome start to raise the level to recommended

Investment recommendations China National Heavy Duty Truck issued a first-quarter performance forecast, expected net profit in the first quarter is 2.

9-3.

3 ppm, an increase of 50-70% per year, exceeding the market and our expectations.

We upgrade our company rating to “Recommended” and raise our target price to 27.

2 yuan.

The reasons are as follows: The light load enters the market, and the 1Q profit has greatly increased than expected; the company’s 1Q19 net profit is expected to increase by 50-70%, exceeding the market and our expectations.

Last year, the company handled thousands of inventory vehicles, especially overdue 杭州夜网 inventory vehicles over a year. At the same time, the price of raw materials rose and costs rose rapidly, which lowered the overall gross profit level. Therefore, the 18-year performance was only basically flat.

This year, the company went light on board and implemented more efficient cost control measures, which significantly improved its profitability.

  Cost control continues to be optimized, and performance flexibility will gradually be released. Since the heavy truck group changed its management, the company’s 4Q18 expense ratio has significantly improved. During the period, the total rate has gradually decreased by 1 ppt, and decreased by 0 from the previous month.

3ppt to 3.

4%.

Cost control of Sinotruk Group is a long-term goal. The internal and external procurement intervals of the company will be continuously controlled and improved, and the flexibility of performance will be gradually released.

  Heavy truck sales hit a record high in March, and gradual heavy trucks are expected to accelerate the elimination of beneficiary countries III.

According to data from the First Commercial Vehicle Network, heavy truck sales were 14 in March.

40,000 vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 4%. Driven by infrastructure, engineering vehicles performed well and monthly sales of heavy trucks hit a record high.

Entering the period of accelerated elimination of National III in 19 and 20, there are 1.8-2 million National III diesel trucks in the domestic market to be eliminated, and the elimination of National III in various provinces and cities has intensified, which will help boost heavy truck sales in 19 and 20 years.

  What makes us different from the market?

We believe that in the context of the continued macroeconomic recovery, heavy truck demand is still optimistic, and gradually sales are expected to reach 1.1 million vehicles.

  Potential catalyst: 2Q heavy truck sales in the peak season are expected to continue to be beautiful, and heavy trucks will continue to improve their profitability while reducing costs and increasing efficiency, and their performance will continue to exceed expectations.

  Earnings forecast and estimation We are optimistic about the recovery of gross profit margin brought by the company’s cost control. We raise the company’s profit forecast for 19/209.

3% / 9.

4% to 12.

600 million / 13.

600 million.

The company currently corresponds to 11.

0x / 10.

2x 2019e / 2020e P / E.

Taking into account the above reasons, we upgrade the company’s rating to recommend and raise the company’s target price by 38% to 27.

2 yuan, corresponding to 14.

5x / 13.

4x2019e / 2020e P / E, according to the current price, there 杭州桑拿 is 32% upside.

  Risk heavy truck sales were lower than expected.